Optimal currency area
in economics, an optimum currency area (or region) (OCA, or OCR) is a geographical region in which it would maximize economic efficiency to have the entire region share a single currency. There are two models, both proposed by Robert A. Mundell: the stationary expectations model and the international risk sharing model. Mundell himself advocates the international risk sharing model and thus concludes in favour of the euro. However, even before the creation of the single currency, there were concerns over diverging economies. Thus, it is possible that the monetary union may fail and the Euro disappearTransaction costs and risks
The most obvious benefit of adopting a single currency is to remove the cost of exchanging currency, theoretically allowing businesses and individuals to consummate previously unprofitable trades. For consumers, banks in the Eurozone must charge the same for intra-member cross-border transactions as purely domestic transactions for electronic payments (e.g., credit cards, debit cards and cash machine withdrawals).
The absence of distinct currencies also removes exchange rate risks. The risk of unanticipated exchange rate movement has always added an additional risk or uncertainty for companies or individuals that invest or trade outside their own currency zones. Companies that hedge against this risk will no longer need to shoulder this additional cost. This is particularly important for countries whose currencies had traditionally fluctuated a great deal, particularly the Mediterranean nations.
Financial markets on the continent are expected to be far more liquid and flexible than they were in the past. The reduction in cross-border transaction costs will allow larger banking firms to provide a wider array of banking services that can compete across and beyond the Eurozone.
Price parity
Another effect of the common European currency is that differences in prices – in particular in price levels – should decrease because of the 'law of one price'. Differences in prices can trigger arbitrage, i.e. speculative trade in a commodity across borders purely to exploit the price differential. Therefore, prices on commonly traded goods are likely to converge, causing inflation in some regions and deflation in others during the transition. Some evidence of this has been observed in specific markets.
Macroeconomic stability
Low levels of inflation are the hallmark of stable and modern economies. Because a high level of inflation acts as a tax (seigniorage) and theoretically discourages investment, it is generally viewed as undesirable. In spite of the downside, many countries have been unable or unwilling to deal with serious inflationary pressures. Some countries have successfully contained them by establishing largely independent central banks. One such bank was the Bundesbank in Germany; as the European Central Bank is modelled on the Bundesbank, it is independent of the pressures of national governments and has a mandate to keep inflationary pressures low.[citation needed] Member countries that join the bank commit to lower inflation, hoping to enjoy the macroeconomic stability associated with low levels of expected inflation.[citation needed] The ECB (unlike the Federal Reserve in the United States of America) does not have a second objective to sustain growth and employment.[citation needed]
Many national and corporate bonds denominated in euro are significantly more liquid and have lower interest rates than was historically the case when denominated in legacy currencies.[citation needed] While increased liquidity may lower the nominal interest rate on the bond, denominating the bond in a currency with low levels of inflation arguably plays a much larger role. A credible commitment to low levels of inflation and a stable debt reduces the risk that the value of the debt will be eroded by higher levels of inflation or default in the future, allowing debt to be issued at a lower nominal interest rate.
Evidence on the effect of the introduction of the euro
In conformity with the economic predictions, empirical studies have found that the introduction of the euro has had a positive impact on the movement of goods, financial assets, and people within the Eurozone. In addition, countries which previously had weak currencies have benefited from lower interest rates and their firms now have easier access to capital.
Trade
The consensus from the studies of the effect of the introduction of the euro is that it has increased trade within the euro area by 5% to 10%. On the lower bound, one study suggested an increase of 3%. A recent study estimates this effect to be between 9 and 14%.
Investment
Studies have found a positive effect of the introduction of the euro on investment. Physical investment seems to have increased by 5% in the Eurozone due to the introduction.[ Regarding foreign direct investment, a study found that the intra-Eurozone FDI stocks have increased by about 20% during the first four years of the EMU. Concerning the effect on corporate investment, there is evidence that the introduction of the euro has resulted in an increase in investment rates and that it has made it easier for firms to access financing in Europe. The euro has most specifically stimulated investment in companies that come from countries that previously had weak currencies. A study found that the introduction of the euro accounts for 22% of the investment rate after 1998 in countries that previously had a weak currency. The effect is however less clear for firms coming from the strong currency countries; the introduction has not been beneficial for most of them.
Inflation
The introduction of the euro has led to extensive discussion about its possible effect on inflation. In the short term, there was a widespread impression in the population of the Eurozone that the introduction of the euro had led to an increase in prices. Paradoxically, this impression has not been supported by general indices of inflation, showing no major effect of the introduction of the euro. A study of this paradox has found that it is due to an asymmetric effect of the introduction of the euro on prices: while it had no effect on most goods, it had an effect on cheap goods which have seen their price round up after the introduction of the euro. The study found that consumers based their beliefs on inflation of those cheap goods which are frequently purchased. It has also been suggested that the jump in small prices may be due to the fact that prior to the introduction, retailers made fewer upward adjustments and waited for the introduction of the euro to do so.
Exchange rate risk
One of the advantages of the adoption of a common currency is the reduction of the risk associated with changes in currency exchange rates. It has been found that the introduction of the euro created "significant reductions in market risk exposures for nonfinancial firms both in and outside of Europe". These reductions in market risk "were concentrated in firms domiciled in the Euro area and in non-Euro firms with a high fraction of foreign sales or assets in Europe". These changes were however "statistically and economically small".
